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15 of 15 matches with xG: 40 goals from 38.7 xG (1.03 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| DC United 0–1 Nashville SC | 0.51–1.14 | 17% · 32% · 51% | Win in line with xG for Nashville SC |
| Orlando City SC 1–2 FC Cincinnati | 1.87–0.55 | 69% · 21% · 10% | Won against the xG: FC Cincinnati |
| Toronto FC 3–0 Portland Timbers | 1.39–0.38 | 63% · 27% · 10% | Win in line with xG for Toronto FC |
| Chicago Fire 3–2 Charlotte | 1.43–1.08 | 45% · 26% · 28% | Win in line with xG for Chicago Fire |
| Houston Dynamo 1–0 St. Louis City SC | 2.45–0.31 | 85% · 12% · 3% | Win in line with xG for Houston Dynamo |
| Sporting Kansas City 1–1 Real Salt Lake | 0.81–1.17 | 25% · 30% · 44% | Draw in line with xG |
| FC Dallas 2–3 San Diego | 2.27–2.42 | 38% · 19% · 43% | Win in line with xG for San Diego |
| San Jose Earthquakes 1–1 LA Galaxy | 1.14–1.91 | 22% · 22% · 55% | Draw against the xG: LA Galaxy had 55% |
| Seattle Sounders 2–0 Austin | 0.92–0.97 | 33% · 32% · 35% | Close call, Seattle Sounders won |
| Columbus Crew 1–0 Philadelphia Union | 0.82–0.44 | 42% · 40% · 18% | Win in line with xG for Columbus Crew |
| LAFC 0–1 Vancouver Whitecaps | 0.89–0.73 | 37% · 35% · 28% | Close call, Vancouver Whitecaps won |
| New York City FC 3–1 Toronto FC | 1.66–1.38 | 44% · 24% · 32% | Win in line with xG for New York City FC |
| FC Dallas 1–2 Minnesota United FC | 1.30–2.55 | 18% · 18% · 64% | Win in line with xG for Minnesota United FC |
| LA Galaxy 3–0 Vancouver Whitecaps | 1.52–0.48 | 63% · 25% · 11% | Win in line with xG for LA Galaxy |
| Inter Miami 4–0 Atlanta United FC | 3.38–0.86 | 84% · 10% · 6% | Win in line with xG for Inter Miami |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.