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13 of 13 matches with xG: 39 goals from 37.5 xG (1.04 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado Rapids 1–2 Sporting Kansas City | 4.17–1.05 | 88% · 7% · 5% | Won against the xG: Sporting Kansas City |
| Charlotte 2–2 Orlando City SC | 0.81–2.35 | 11% · 17% · 72% | Draw against the xG: Orlando City SC had 72% |
| FC Cincinnati 2–1 Chicago Fire | 0.99–0.78 | 39% · 33% · 28% | Win in line with xG for FC Cincinnati |
| DC United 0–0 Atlanta United FC | 0.65–0.63 | 30% · 40% · 29% | Draw in line with xG |
| CF Montreal 1–4 Inter Miami | 1.98–2.93 | 25% · 17% · 58% | Win in line with xG for Inter Miami |
| Nashville SC 1–0 Philadelphia Union | 2.48–1.20 | 65% · 18% · 17% | Win in line with xG for Nashville SC |
| Real Salt Lake 3–2 St. Louis City SC | 1.61–2.03 | 31% · 21% · 48% | Close call, Real Salt Lake won |
| Portland Timbers 2–1 New England Revolution | 0.99–1.61 | 23% · 25% · 52% | Won against the xG: Portland Timbers |
| San Jose Earthquakes 1–1 New York Red Bulls | 1.43–0.77 | 53% · 27% · 20% | Draw against the xG: San Jose Earthquakes had 53% |
| San Diego 3–4 Houston Dynamo | 1.67–1.55 | 41% · 23% · 36% | Close call, Houston Dynamo won |
| Seattle Sounders 1–1 Columbus Crew | 1.68–0.84 | 57% · 24% · 19% | Draw against the xG: Seattle Sounders had 57% |
| New England Revolution 1–2 Inter Miami | 1.40–1.12 | 43% · 27% · 30% | Close call, Inter Miami won |
| Austin 1–0 LAFC | 0.47–0.29 | 30% · 53% · 17% | Close call, Austin won |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.