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15 of 15 matches with xG: 42 goals from 45.0 xG (0.93 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Charlotte 2–0 New York City FC | 1.39–1.44 | 36% · 25% · 39% | Close call, Charlotte won |
| FC Cincinnati 2–4 Columbus Crew | 0.64–1.10 | 21% · 32% · 46% | Win in line with xG for Columbus Crew |
| Orlando City SC 1–1 CF Montreal | 0.48–0.85 | 20% · 38% · 42% | Draw in line with xG |
| Philadelphia Union 2–0 New York Red Bulls | 2.53–0.60 | 79% · 14% · 7% | Win in line with xG for Philadelphia Union |
| Toronto FC 1–1 Atlanta United FC | 0.72–1.32 | 20% · 29% · 51% | Draw against the xG: Atlanta United FC had 51% |
| Inter Miami 2–1 Nashville SC | 1.03–0.62 | 45% · 34% · 22% | Win in line with xG for Inter Miami |
| Austin 0–0 New England Revolution | 1.93–1.65 | 45% · 22% · 33% | Draw in line with xG |
| Sporting Kansas City 2–3 Seattle Sounders | 3.43–2.32 | 60% · 15% · 25% | Won against the xG: Seattle Sounders |
| Minnesota United FC 4–1 San Jose Earthquakes | 2.83–1.20 | 71% · 15% · 13% | Win in line with xG for Minnesota United FC |
| Chicago Fire 1–2 San Diego | 1.90–1.15 | 55% · 22% · 23% | Won against the xG: San Diego |
| Colorado Rapids 3–0 Vancouver Whitecaps | 2.52–1.20 | 66% · 18% · 16% | Win in line with xG for Colorado Rapids |
| Real Salt Lake 1–0 Houston Dynamo | 1.37–1.59 | 33% · 24% · 43% | Close call, Real Salt Lake won |
| LA Galaxy 2–1 DC United | 1.52–1.55 | 37% · 24% · 39% | Close call, LA Galaxy won |
| LAFC 2–0 FC Dallas | 2.05–0.87 | 65% · 20% · 15% | Win in line with xG for LAFC |
| St. Louis City SC 2–1 Portland Timbers | 2.08–1.15 | 59% · 21% · 20% | Win in line with xG for St. Louis City SC |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.