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14 of 14 matches with xG: 46 goals from 45.4 xG (1.01 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta United FC 2–2 Chicago Fire | 1.21–2.17 | 21% · 20% · 59% | Draw against the xG: Chicago Fire had 59% |
| Charlotte 2–1 DC United | 2.40–0.45 | 81% · 14% · 5% | Win in line with xG for Charlotte |
| FC Cincinnati 3–0 Inter Miami | 1.33–0.95 | 45% · 28% · 27% | Win in line with xG for FC Cincinnati |
| New York Red Bulls 5–3 New England Revolution | 3.56–2.29 | 62% · 15% · 23% | Win in line with xG for New York Red Bulls |
| Philadelphia Union 2–1 CF Montreal | 1.58–1.53 | 39% · 24% · 37% | Win in line with xG for Philadelphia Union |
| Orlando City SC 1–2 New York City FC | 2.76–1.49 | 64% · 17% · 19% | Won against the xG: New York City FC |
| Houston Dynamo 0–3 Vancouver Whitecaps | 0.66–1.99 | 11% · 20% · 69% | Win in line with xG for Vancouver Whitecaps |
| Minnesota United FC 0–1 LAFC | 0.45–2.03 | 7% · 18% · 75% | Win in line with xG for LAFC |
| Nashville SC 3–0 Columbus Crew | 2.48–1.23 | 65% · 18% · 17% | Win in line with xG for Nashville SC |
| Seattle Sounders 3–3 Colorado Rapids | 1.90–2.47 | 30% · 19% · 51% | Draw against the xG: Colorado Rapids had 51% |
| LA Galaxy 1–2 Austin | 2.02–1.36 | 53% · 22% · 26% | Won against the xG: Austin |
| Portland Timbers 0–1 Real Salt Lake | 0.95–0.86 | 36% · 33% · 31% | Close call, Real Salt Lake won |
| San Jose Earthquakes 2–2 FC Dallas | 1.23–2.64 | 16% · 17% · 67% | Draw against the xG: FC Dallas had 67% |
| San Diego 0–1 Toronto FC | 0.43–0.98 | 16% · 36% · 48% | Win in line with xG for Toronto FC |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.