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14 of 14 matches with xG: 43 goals from 40.4 xG (1.06 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta United FC 2–3 Charlotte | 1.54–1.46 | 40% · 24% · 36% | Close call, Charlotte won |
| Columbus Crew 2–1 DC United | 2.45–0.45 | 82% · 13% · 5% | Win in line with xG for Columbus Crew |
| CF Montreal 0–2 Chicago Fire | 0.84–1.40 | 23% · 27% · 50% | Win in line with xG for Chicago Fire |
| New England Revolution 1–2 Orlando City SC | 1.17–1.74 | 26% · 24% · 51% | Win in line with xG for Orlando City SC |
| New York Red Bulls 1–5 Inter Miami | 0.76–3.07 | 6% · 11% · 83% | Win in line with xG for Inter Miami |
| FC Dallas 3–0 St. Louis City SC | 2.11–0.67 | 71% · 19% · 11% | Win in line with xG for FC Dallas |
| Houston Dynamo 1–1 Philadelphia Union | 1.74–1.39 | 46% · 23% · 31% | Draw in line with xG |
| Sporting Kansas City 1–1 New York City FC | 1.05–1.60 | 25% · 25% · 50% | Draw against the xG: New York City FC had 50% |
| Nashville SC 1–0 Toronto FC | 2.03–0.46 | 75% · 18% · 7% | Win in line with xG for Nashville SC |
| Seattle Sounders 3–2 San Jose Earthquakes | 2.25–2.21 | 41% · 20% · 40% | Win in line with xG for Seattle Sounders |
| Real Salt Lake 0–1 FC Cincinnati | 0.95–0.54 | 44% · 36% · 20% | Won against the xG: FC Cincinnati |
| LAFC 3–3 LA Galaxy | 1.41–1.88 | 29% · 22% · 49% | Draw in line with xG |
| Portland Timbers 1–1 Minnesota United FC | 1.68–0.63 | 63% · 24% · 14% | Draw against the xG: Portland Timbers had 63% |
| San Diego 1–1 Vancouver Whitecaps | 1.10–1.83 | 23% · 23% · 54% | Draw against the xG: Vancouver Whitecaps had 54% |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.