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15 of 15 matches with xG: 46 goals from 44.2 xG (1.04 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cincinnati 0–1 New York City FC | 0.62–0.98 | 23% · 34% · 43% | Win in line with xG for New York City FC |
| Columbus Crew 1–2 New England Revolution | 1.25–1.81 | 26% · 23% · 51% | Win in line with xG for New England Revolution |
| DC United 1–1 Inter Miami | 1.15–0.62 | 49% · 32% · 20% | Draw in line with xG |
| CF Montreal 3–2 Austin | 1.96–0.94 | 61% · 21% · 17% | Win in line with xG for CF Montreal |
| Philadelphia Union 4–0 Chicago Fire | 2.39–0.21 | 86% · 12% · 2% | Win in line with xG for Philadelphia Union |
| FC Dallas 1–1 LAFC | 0.69–2.01 | 12% · 20% · 68% | Draw against the xG: LAFC had 68% |
| Houston Dynamo 1–2 San Jose Earthquakes | 1.09–1.78 | 23% · 23% · 54% | Win in line with xG for San Jose Earthquakes |
| Nashville SC 5–1 Orlando City SC | 2.64–0.80 | 77% · 15% · 9% | Win in line with xG for Nashville SC |
| Real Salt Lake 1–3 Minnesota United FC | 2.05–0.71 | 69% · 19% · 12% | Won against the xG: Minnesota United FC |
| Vancouver Whitecaps 3–2 St. Louis City SC | 4.45–1.27 | 88% · 7% · 5% | Win in line with xG for Vancouver Whitecaps |
| LA Galaxy 3–0 Colorado Rapids | 2.34–0.93 | 69% · 18% · 13% | Win in line with xG for LA Galaxy |
| San Diego 0–0 Portland Timbers | 1.02–1.14 | 32% · 29% · 38% | Draw in line with xG |
| Atlanta United FC 0–0 Toronto FC | 0.31–0.99 | 11% · 36% · 52% | Draw against the xG: Toronto FC had 52% |
| Charlotte 1–0 New York Red Bulls | 0.50–1.69 | 10% · 23% · 67% | Won against the xG: Charlotte |
| Seattle Sounders 5–2 Sporting Kansas City | 4.34–1.50 | 84% · 9% · 8% | Win in line with xG for Seattle Sounders |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.