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17 of 17 matches with xG: 54 goals from 53.7 xG (1.01 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inter Miami 3–1 Seattle Sounders | 2.53–1.22 | 66% · 18% · 17% | Win in line with xG for Inter Miami |
| New York City FC 2–0 Charlotte | 2.48–0.90 | 72% · 16% · 12% | Win in line with xG for New York City FC |
| Philadelphia Union 1–0 New England Revolution | 1.42–0.38 | 64% · 27% · 10% | Win in line with xG for Philadelphia Union |
| Atlanta United FC 1–1 San Diego | 1.94–0.80 | 64% · 21% · 15% | Draw against the xG: Atlanta United FC had 64% |
| Columbus Crew 1–1 Toronto FC | 0.98–0.17 | 56% · 37% · 6% | Draw against the xG: Columbus Crew had 56% |
| Inter Miami 3–2 DC United | 3.05–0.94 | 79% · 12% · 8% | Win in line with xG for Inter Miami |
| CF Montreal 0–2 New York Red Bulls | 1.72–1.45 | 44% · 23% · 33% | Close call, New York Red Bulls won |
| Orlando City SC 3–2 Nashville SC | 1.62–1.35 | 44% · 24% · 32% | Win in line with xG for Orlando City SC |
| FC Dallas 3–1 Colorado Rapids | 2.61–0.76 | 77% · 14% · 9% | Win in line with xG for FC Dallas |
| Houston Dynamo 1–0 Portland Timbers | 1.88–0.65 | 67% · 21% · 12% | Win in line with xG for Houston Dynamo |
| Sporting Kansas City 0–2 Vancouver Whitecaps | 0.56–1.28 | 16% · 29% · 54% | Win in line with xG for Vancouver Whitecaps |
| Minnesota United FC 0–3 Chicago Fire | 0.97–2.46 | 13% · 17% · 70% | Win in line with xG for Chicago Fire |
| LA Galaxy 2–3 FC Cincinnati | 1.65–2.36 | 27% · 20% · 54% | Win in line with xG for FC Cincinnati |
| San Jose Earthquakes 1–3 St. Louis City SC | 3.30–1.96 | 64% · 15% · 21% | Won against the xG: St. Louis City SC |
| Austin 2–1 Seattle Sounders | 1.75–2.38 | 28% · 20% · 52% | Won against the xG: Austin |
| LAFC 4–1 Real Salt Lake | 2.06–0.83 | 66% · 20% · 14% | Win in line with xG for LAFC |
| New York City FC 0–4 Inter Miami | 0.93–2.32 | 14% · 18% · 68% | Win in line with xG for Inter Miami |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.