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15 of 15 matches with xG: 43 goals from 48.8 xG (0.88 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| New England Revolution 2–1 New York Red Bulls | 2.16–1.52 | 52% · 21% · 27% | Win in line with xG for New England Revolution |
| Toronto FC 0–0 Vancouver Whitecaps | 0.77–1.34 | 21% · 28% · 50% | Draw against the xG: Vancouver Whitecaps had 50% |
| Colorado Rapids 2–0 Charlotte | 3.15–0.51 | 88% · 9% · 3% | Win in line with xG for Colorado Rapids |
| Atlanta United FC 4–3 New York City FC | 1.68–1.99 | 33% · 21% · 45% | Close call, Atlanta United FC won |
| DC United 1–2 Columbus Crew | 1.36–1.19 | 41% · 27% · 33% | Close call, Columbus Crew won |
| Inter Miami 2–1 Philadelphia Union | 2.13–2.20 | 39% · 20% · 41% | Close call, Inter Miami won |
| Chicago Fire 1–1 CF Montreal | 0.81–1.57 | 19% · 25% · 55% | Draw against the xG: CF Montreal had 55% |
| FC Dallas 2–1 Sporting Kansas City | 1.36–0.78 | 51% · 28% · 21% | Win in line with xG for FC Dallas |
| Minnesota United FC 2–0 Real Salt Lake | 2.41–1.62 | 55% · 19% · 25% | Win in line with xG for Minnesota United FC |
| Nashville SC 1–2 FC Cincinnati | 2.44–1.72 | 54% · 19% · 27% | Won against the xG: FC Cincinnati |
| LA Galaxy 1–2 Orlando City SC | 1.24–1.77 | 27% · 23% · 50% | Win in line with xG for Orlando City SC |
| San Jose Earthquakes 1–1 Seattle Sounders | 1.02–2.86 | 11% · 14% · 75% | Draw against the xG: Seattle Sounders had 75% |
| San Diego 3–2 LAFC | 2.87–1.57 | 64% · 17% · 19% | Win in line with xG for San Diego |
| St. Louis City SC 0–1 Austin | 0.80–0.77 | 33% · 36% · 31% | Close call, Austin won |
| Portland Timbers 3–1 Houston Dynamo | 2.56–0.59 | 80% · 14% · 6% | Win in line with xG for Portland Timbers |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.