Xgoals
xG Guide · Reference

Sources

Every figure in the guide comes from a named, dated source. Here they all are, with the chapters that use them. Methods change, so dates matter.

All sources

SourceDateCited in
American Soccer Analysis: explanation of models—How xG is calculated, Expected assists
American Soccer Analysis: is xG the best predictor of future results?July 2022What is xG?, Sample size, xG for, against and difference, How accurate is xG?, History of xG
American Soccer Analysis: measuring shooting overperformanceAugust 2023xG myths, Finishing over xG
Bajons & Kook: expected goals models (arXiv)2025What is xG?, How xG is calculated, Typical xG values, Shot-value explorer, History of xG
Bundesliga.com: the xG model by Sportec Solutions—Why providers disagree
Decroos et al.: VAEP (IJCAI 2020)2020OBV and VAEP, xG glossary
Ensum, Pollard & Taylor: shots at the 2002 World Cup (described in Bajons & Kook)2004History of xG
Fantasy Football Scout: What is xG and how is it measured (Opta data)June 2019Typical xG values, Shot-value explorer, Set pieces
FBref: Expected goals model explained—Typical xG values, Why providers disagree, xGOT and post-shot xG, Goals prevented, Expected assists
Hudl StatsBomb: Expected goals (xG) explained—What is xG?, How xG is calculated, Typical xG values, Why providers disagree, xG myths, xGOT and post-shot xG, Goals prevented, Sample size, Shot map and xG race, xG for, against and difference, Set pieces, How accurate is xG?, xG glossary
Hudl StatsBomb: Upgrading expected goalsMay 2022How xG is calculated, Typical xG values, Why providers disagree, xGOT and post-shot xG, History of xG
John Knight: Introducing contexG (game state and xG)—Game state
Karun Singh: Introducing expected threat (xT)—Expected threat (xT), xG glossary
KU Leuven DTAI: How data availability affects learning good xG models2020Why providers disagree, How accurate is xG?, xG glossary
KU Leuven DTAI: How data quality affects xG2020Why providers disagree, xG myths
Liu et al.: reliability of Opta event data2013Why providers disagree
MartinOnData: Which xG data should you trust? (The Python Football Review #017)November 2025Why providers disagree, Sample size
Opta Analyst: Evolving expected goals (the 2022 model)April 2022How xG is calculated, Typical xG values, Why providers disagree, History of xG
Opta Analyst: Opta football stats definitions—xG myths, PPDA and field tilt, xG glossary
Opta Analyst: What are expected assists (xA)?—xG myths, Expected assists, xG glossary
Opta Analyst: What is expected goals (xG)?2023What is xG?, How xG is calculated, Typical xG values, Why providers disagree, Live xG, xG myths, xGOT and post-shot xG, Goals prevented, Finishing over xG, One big chance or many small, Expected points, Shot map and xG race, Shot-value explorer, xG for, against and difference, Game state, Set pieces, Women's football xG, History of xG, xG and odds, xG calculator, Hit rate and base rate, xG glossary
Romano: xG pipelines (Politecnico di Milano thesis)March 2026Why providers disagree
SciSports: event data files (F7, F24)—Live xG, xG myths
Soccerment: shots in the same possession—xG myths, One big chance or many small, Expected points, Set pieces
Sports-Reference blog: FBref—Why providers disagree, History of xG
Stats Perform: How we measure pressure—xG myths, PPDA and field tilt, xG glossary
Stats Perform: Introducing expected goals on target (xGOT)—xGOT and post-shot xG, Goals prevented, xG glossary
Stats Perform: xG, the metric changing analysis, betting and fan engagement—xG and odds
StatsBomb (Trainor): How do headers compare to shots?2013How xG is calculated, Typical xG values, Shot-value explorer
StatsBomb live data API guide—Live xG
StatsBomb: On-ball value (OBV)2021OBV and VAEP, xG glossary
StatsBomb: Quantifying finishing skill—xG myths, Finishing over xG
StatsBomb: xG is on TV, now what?August 2017History of xG
StatsBomb: xGChain and xGBuildup2018Expected assists, xGChain and xGBuildup, xG glossary
ToffeeWeb: So who decides the xG values anyway?2025-26Why providers disagree
Tony ElHabr: expected points by simulation—Expected points, xG glossary
Understat—How xG is calculated, Why providers disagree
Wharton: Beyond expected goals—xG myths, Finishing over xG
Wilkens: xG and betting markets, 11 Bundesliga seasons (Journal of Sports Analytics)2026xG and odds
Wyscout data glossary: xG—Typical xG values, Why providers disagree, xGOT and post-shot xG, Goals prevented
Xgoals: How we measure2026What is xG?, Live xG

Open questions

xG explains football; it is not a betting tip. 18+ · Please gamble responsibly.